Ecuador: Merely tying Senegal would allow Ecuador to advance. It could also advance with a loss, but that would require a Qatar victory against the Netherlands and would also depend on tiebreakers like goal differential.
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Netherlands: No match in the World Cup is a guarantee, but the Netherlands faces 0-2 Qatar next. The Dutch would advance even with a draw, and they could also advance with a loss, depending on the Ecuador-Senegal outcome and if they can hold on to their goal-differential advantage (the first tiebreaker).
Senegal: The match with Ecuador appears likely to decide a spot in the knockout round. Senegal, the reigning champion of Africa, will probably have to win; a draw would mean it would have to count on a convincing Qatar victory over the Netherlands.
Qatar: The host country has been eliminated.
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Today was a thrilling one! Matchday nine in 60 seconds ⏲️ #FIFAWorldCup | #Qatar2022 pic.twitter.com/zbsaaGHpvr
— FIFA World Cup (@FIFAWorldCup) November 28, 2022
GROUP B
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England: All signs point to England advancing to the round of 16. Up next is Wales. If England beats Wales, it will advance with the No. 1 seed. If England ties Wales, it will advance with the No. 1 or No. 2 seed. If England loses to Wales, it will still be in solid position to advance. Only a four-goal rout by Wales would put England in danger of elimination.
Iran: A country that never made it past the group stage in a World Cup is now in a position to do just that. A win against the U.S. would be enough for the Iranians to advance. Iran would also advance with a draw unless Wales defeats England.
United States: If the U.S. defeats Iran, it will advance. The Americans would be eliminated by a draw or a loss against Iran.
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Wales: Being at the bottom of the group leaves Wales a narrow path to the round of 16. It must beat England and hope for a U.S.-Iran draw. Wales can also advance with at least a four-goal victory against England.
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GROUP C
Poland: Sitting in first place, Poland will advance to the knockout stage with a win or a draw against Argentina. Even if it loses to Argentina, it still has a chance of advancing in some scenarios in which Mexico and Saudi Arabia tie or Mexico wins, depending on tiebreakers such as goal differential.
Argentina: Second-place Argentina will advance to the knockout stage if it beats Poland in its last group game, but even a draw could do it — as long as the other group game is a draw or if Mexico wins but not by a hefty goal differential.
Saudi Arabia: Following its monumental upset of Argentina with a loss, to Poland, Saudi Arabia complicated its hopes of a berth in the round of 16. If Saudi Arabia beats Mexico in its next game, it will advance, but it could also go through with a draw if Poland wins, or if Argentina wins (but that scenario would come down to goal differential).
Mexico: Chances of advancing are narrow but not impossible: If Mexico beats Saudi Arabia and Poland beats Argentina, it will head to the round of 16. If Mexico wins but Argentina beats Poland, Mexico would need a hefty goal differential to move ahead of Poland for the second-place spot in the group. Mexico could also advance if it wins and the other group game is a tie, but again it would depend on tiebreakers like goal differential.
GROUP D
France: The defending champion became the first team to clinch a berth in the round of 16. It will almost certainly advance as the top seed in the group, even if it loses its final game of group play against Tunisia.
Australia: After dropping its first game, to France, Australia bounced back to defeat Tunisia and keep its hopes alive of a berth in the round of 16. It is now in second place in the group. A win against Denmark would see the Australians through. A tie would suffice if France beats or ties Tunisia.
Denmark: To advance, Denmark must defeat Australia. Even then, it would also need France to win or tie against Tunisia. If Denmark and Tunisia win their final matches, Denmark could win on goal differential. Right now, the two countries are tied on that measure.
Tunisia: A team that is at the bottom of the group and has yet to score a goal in this World Cup plays France in its third match. Yet Tunisia can still advance. Its simplest path is to defeat France and have Australia and Denmark tie. If Tunisia wins and Denmark wins, Tunisia could advance via tiebreakers like goal differential.
GROUP E
Spain: Sitting atop the group, Spain is assured a spot in the round of 16 if it defeats or ties Japan. It will be eliminated if it loses to Japan and Costa Rica defeats Germany.
Japan: It will advance if its beats Spain and also if both final group games end in a draw. There are also some score scenarios where Japan can advance with a draw if Germany defeats Costa Rica.
Costa Rica: Defeating Germany will allow Costa Rica to advance. It will also advance with a draw against Germany if Spain defeats Japan.
Germany: Though it is in last place in the group, Germany is in a surprisingly strong position to advance to the round of 16. It advances if it beats Costa Rica and Spain beats Japan. There are other paths if Japan wins or if Spain and Japan tie, but the simplest path for Germany is to win and for Spain to win.
GROUP F
Croatia: It shares first place with Morocco and is ahead on goal differential. It plays Belgium next and needs only 1 point to advance. It can also advance in some score scenarios if it loses and if Canada defeats Morocco.
Morocco: A stunning win against Belgium blew the group wide open. Morocco can now advance merely with a tie against Canada. It will advance with a loss to Canada if Croatia beats Belgium. It can also advance with a loss combined with other outcomes of the Belgium-Croatia game, but that would depend on goal differential and other tiebreakers.
Belgium: To advance to the round of 16, Belgium will almost certainly need a win against Croatia.
Canada: The team that scored the fastest opening goal of this World Cup can no longer advance.
Every single goal so far 🍿
Which is your favourite 🧐#FIFAWorldCup #Qatar2022
— FIFA World Cup (@FIFAWorldCup) November 29, 2022
GROUP G
Brazil: A 1-0 victory against Switzerland on Monday made Brazil the second team to clinch a berth in the round of 16. It will almost certainly be the top seed, even if it loses its next match, against Cameroon.
Switzerland: The Swiss still have a clear path to the round of 16. If it beats Serbia, it will advance no matter what happens in the Brazil-Cameroon match. Switzerland can also advance with a tie against Serbia if Brazil wins or ties its match against Cameroon.
Cameroon: A 3-3 draw with Serbia leaves Cameroon with a narrow path to the round of 16. Unfortunately, that path leads through Brazil, one of the strongest teams in the tournament. Cameroon will need to win that match, but even that may not be enough. If Serbia and Cameroon both win, tiebreakers like goal differential will separate them. Cameroon will almost certainly advance if it wins and Serbia and Switzerland tie.
Serbia: Its path to the round of 16 is a mirror of Cameroon’s. Both teams are 0-1-1 and need a win in their last match. Serbia will play Switzerland. If Serbia and Cameroon both win, it will depend on tiebreakers like goal differential. Serbia will advance if it wins and Brazil wins or ties against Cameroon.
GROUP H
Portugal: A 2-0 win against Uruguay on Monday gave Portugal a spot in the round of 16 regardless of what happens in its final match, against South Korea. A victory or a tie would mean winning the group; a narrow loss could also result in a No. 1 seed.
Ghana: With a 3-2 victory against South Korea, Ghana kept its hopes alive. It will advance if it beats Uruguay and could also advance with a draw. It will advance with a draw if Portugal wins or ties its game.
South Korea: It has a narrow path to the round of 16. It must beat Portugal to have a chance, but with Portugal already assured of advancing, South Korea could have the edge in motivation. Even with a victory, though, South Korea could lose out in various tiebreaking scenarios.
Uruguay: It also has a narrow path to the round of 16. It needs a win in its final match, against Ghana, and help in the form of a Portugal win or tie against South Korea. It can also advance if it wins and South Korea beats Portugal, but to advance via a tiebreaker, it would need a decisive victory against Ghana.
