Nasa is keeping a close watch on an asteroid that could hit Earth in 2032, sparking global talks on how to stop such a catastrophic disaster, New York Post reports.
The asteroid, named 2024 YR4, has a 1.5% chance of hitting Earth, according to Nasa’s latest calculations. While the risk is low, the possible impact is serious enough to require close monitoring. The asteroid is about the size of a large office building.
Global coordination to track and deflect YR4
International space agencies, including Nasa, the China national space administration (CNSA), Roscosmos, and the European space agency (ESA), are working together to track the asteroid’s path. Astronomers from the International Asteroid Warning Network have also been enlisted to map its trajectory and evaluate potential risks.
On Tuesday, Nasa initially estimated a 3.1% probability—equivalent to 1 in 32—of a deep impact. However, further observations on Wednesday slightly lowered the risk.
Potential impact zones and risks
YR4, measuring between 130 and 300 feet widecould strike one of the world’s major cities, including Bogotá, Lagos, or Mumbai. Scientists estimate that up to 110 million people could be at risk if the asteroid were to collide with a densely populated area.
“If you put it over Paris or London or New York, you basically wipe out the whole city and some of the environs,” Bruce Betts, chief scientist of the Planetary Society, told AFP.
‘Destroying it would be easy’
Nasa and its counterparts may consider sending a rocket with explosives to change the asteroid’s course or destroy it entirely if the risk of impact rises.
“Destroying it would be easy,” said a Nasa project manager at Kennedy Space Center. “It wouldn’t even take that much explosives. The trick is getting to it, and delivering the explosives precisely at the right time, at the right angle. That’s the hard part.”
The asteroid’s composition remains unknown, which complicates plans for intervention. Some asteroids are porous and disintegrate easily, as seen in the 2013 Chelyabinsk explosion over Russia. Others are denser and require more force to break apart. Nasa has not disclosed whether nuclear warheads or other explosive methods would be used if intervention becomes necessary.
Asteroid 2024 YR4
The asteroid was first detected in December 2023, and scientists originally estimated a 1 in 83 chance of impact. It will return to Earth’s vicinity in 2028, offering astronomers another opportunity to refine predictions. Many expect the impact probability to drop significantly during this period.
Even with the low probability of impact, space agencies are not taking any chances. Hundreds of telescopes worldwide are actively tracking the asteroid’s movement.
“We have plenty of notice, and this is one to watch,” the Nasa project manager said. “It could end up not being a danger at all. It could change in mass if there’s ice on it, and that would change things tremendously.
“It could wobble just a little bit now, and that slight change now could add up to tens of thousands of miles by the time it gets back this way. The sky isn’t falling—yet. Anything can happen. But we still have to stay on our guard.”
